| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Northern Arizona | 38-19 | 1752.6 | +0.0 | 1752.6 | 81.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Mississippi State | 20-24 | 1752.6 | -74.0 | 1678.6 | 90.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Texas State | 34-15 | 1678.6 | +20.3 | 1698.9 | 69.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Baylor | 27-24 | 1698.9 | +43.1 | 1742.0 | 57.1% |
| 6 | Sep 26 2025 | W | TCU | 27-24 | 1742.0 | +34.7 | 1776.7 | 51.5% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Utah | 10-42 | 1776.7 | -58.4 | 1718.3 | 75.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Texas Tech | 26-22 | 1718.3 | +37.7 | 1756.0 | 47.8% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Houston | 16-24 | 1756.0 | -67.2 | 1688.8 | 73.4% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Iowa State | 24-19 | 1688.8 | +43.6 | 1732.4 | 56.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | West Virginia | 25-23 | 1732.4 | +14.7 | 1747.1 | 77.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Colorado | 42-17 | 1747.1 | +16.4 | 1763.5 | 85.2% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Arizona | 7-23 | 1763.5 | -60.1 | 1703.4 | 63.9% |
| 20 | Dec 31 2025 | L | Duke | 39-42 | 1703.4 | -44.0 | 1659.4 | 51.7% |